Secondary

The Green Bay secondary is facing great uncertainty with their top three safeties all set to become free agents. Darnell Savage’s departure seems likely as the team didn’t re-sign him before his void years converted to dead cap money. Even if Rudy Ford or Jonathan Owens return, the Packers will be in the market for an upgrade at the safety position.

At cornerback, the situation is also filled with serious questions. Slot corner Keisean Nixon wasn’t re-signed before his void years took effect. Eric Stokes is attempting to bounce back from two injury-plagued seasons. Meanwhile, Jaire Alexander’s 2023 campaign was marred by various injuries, limiting him to just seven games.

Given these circumstances, the Packers must address depth concerns, secure a slot corner, and potentially find a starter opposite Alexander if Stokes fails to regain his form. That’s a substantial to-do list for Green Bay to address at just one position group. Therefore, don’t be surprised if the Packers draft a cornerback early and end up selecting more than one defensive back.

Offensive Line

Similar to the rest of the offense, the offensive line experienced a shaky start to the 2023 season but showed improvement during the latter half of the campaign. Nevertheless, key concerns loom over the offensive line, particularly with the anticipated departure of two starters.

David Bakhtiari, burdened by a substantial cap hit, has been limited to just 13 games over the past three seasons. The likelihood of his retention hinges on a contract restructuring involving a significant pay cut for 2024, possibly with added incentives. However, he’s likely to either be traded or released during the offseason.

Elsewhere on the offensive line, swing tackle Yosh Nijman is set to enter free agency and is unlikely to return to the Packers. Nijman is likely seeking opportunities for a starting role, with other teams expected to offer more lucrative deals than what Green Bay can provide.

Internally, starting right guard Jon Runyan will also hit free agency next month while center Josh Myers has yet to fully justify his second-round draft status. Although Myers has one year left on his contract, the Packers should be able to recognize the need for depth and a potential upgrade at the position.

Consequently, the Packers will at least have to bolster their offensive line depth through the draft. However, if Green Bay has a chance to draft a guard or center who could potentially start right away, the Packers may not be able to pass up on the opportunity to use a first or second-round pick on an offensive lineman. Of course, it’s likely that safety and running back will be prioritized over the offensive line during the early rounds, even if all three position groups should be addressed at some point during the draft.

I mean, maybe, but that’s certainly not what’s going on here. Gutekunst didn’t just replace Rodgers; he ostensibly replaced All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari with a seventh-round pick. And in the wake of Davante Adams’ departure, a coalition of young receiving talent has dragged the position further down the list of needs. It’s worth mentioning that nearly every piece of Adams’ justification for leaving has aged as poorly as Derek Carr himself.

In the past two drafts, Gutekunst has been knocking down treys from Steph Curry range — and by that, I mean the late rounds. In 2022, he found one of the league’s best linemen, Zach Tom, in the fourth round before adding Rasheed Walker in the seventh. That’s two impact players at a high-value position, enabling the Packers to continue addressing defense with their most premium picks. Romeo Doubs was another fourth-round gem that year, and he came alive this postseason. Fifth-rounder Kingsley Enagbare has been nothing but solid as a backup edge. However, he has a long road back after tearing his ACL in Dallas. Not to mention, the top picks that year – Quay Walker, Devonte Wyatt, and Christian Watson – have plenty of runway ahead of them.

Moving on to 2023, Gutekunst got Dontayvion Wicks in the fifth and Karl Brooks in the sixth. The latter was casually one of the highest-graded defensive linemen in the league and were both extraordinary snipes. However, it’s hard to find a miss aside from Anders Carlson. Gutey rounded out the pass-catching group nicely by hitting on two tight ends in Musgrave and Kraft and adding some vertical and horizontal dynamism in Jayden Reed. The top pick, Lukas Van Ness, was one of the lesser contributors. But the Packers drafted him as a Rashan Gary-esque project at the edge position. Just based on the magnitude of the hit rate here, teams might want to see if Sean Clifford is available for trade!

Not only did the Packers get Love protection, but they also gave him a young, fun receiving corps where everybody has their own sort of specialization. More importantly, all of that showed up in the playoffs, perhaps even more so than the regular season. Stop me if this sounds familiar, but all that’s left to do is turn the elite defensive personnel on the roster into an elite defense. Ideally, the third time’s the charm with Jeff Hafley.

The Packers are one of four teams who will be controlling the draft in April, with five picks in the Top 100. The Arizona Cardinals, Washington Commanders, and Chicago Bears are the other three, emphasizing how masterful this reload has been. Each of those franchises began their rebuild long ago, and they are still just as far from Love and the Packers as they were from Rodgers and the Packers. This should be where it starts to get really fun.

At some point, Green Bay will have to beat the San Francisco 49ers if they are to finally seize the NFC. Still, it’s fun to be back in the mix already, and it’s all thanks to an unprecedented rebuild, built on the back of unprecedented batches of late-round gems.

It may seem like Green Bay is jumping the gun a bit to sign Love to a new deal this offseason, seeing as how he still has one year left on his current deal. Having signed a one year, $13.5M deal that could have reached $22.5M through escalators last offseason, Love was able to bypass his fifth-year contract extension while giving him full control of how much he earns.

But quarterbacks typically don’t like to enter as a lame duck, so getting a deal done before the season begins is the best course of action. Green Bay can look to build a deal based on Love’s lone season as a starter while citing his lack of experience for why he doesn’t have to be paid like a top-5 signal caller.

Contract Details

With the top-10 quarterbacks earning at least $40 million per season (AAV), that likely will be the base for Love’s new deal. While Green Bay could look to come in just under that yearly total and try to build in incentives, it should be expected that Love’s camp would need to have a deal starting at $40M/season.

More realistically, fans should expect Love’s new deal to come in right around $41-42M, which would put him behind Josh Allen but ahead of Daniel Jones and Dak Prescott’s current deals. Most extensions negotiated with members of the Packers don’t extend longer than four or five seasons, so Love likely will be offered a five-year deal, with his camp pushing for four years so he can enter free agency for even more money sooner.

All in all once the dust settles, Love’s deal should be a four-year deal worth $168 million at its base, with incentives and a signing bonus raising his deal to around $195M in total. It likely will seem to be a bit much for a quarterback that still need to consistently prove himself, but in the world where the value of QBs continues to go up by the minute, locking Love in at his current value and expecting him to keep his future value makes the most sense.

“It’s pretty amazing what Brian has done,” one AFC executive told me this week. “He traded Aaron (Rodgers), takes a chance on Jordan (Love), goes young with his roster and they somehow get better.

“He’s got the youngest team in the league and it looks like they’re just get started. I mean, those last two draft classes are something else.”

What Gutekunst has done in the last two drafts is mind-boggling. And it’s enormous reason the Packers haven’t missed a beat in the post-Rodgers era.

Former Packers general manager Ron Wolf, who was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2015, used to say if he could find three starters and a pair of solid backups in a draft, it was wildly successful. Gutekunst has blown those numbers out of the water.

In 2022, Gutekunst used first round picks on linebacker Quay Walker and defensive end Devonte Wyatt. Walker has started from the second he arrived in Green Bay, while Wyatt is an emerging talent.

Gutekunst’s next four picks were second round wideout Christian Watson, third round guard Sean Rhyan, fourth round wideout Romeo Doubs and fourth round tackle Zach Tom.

Watson has been plagued by injury, but could be the most talented player in the draft class. Rhyan has alternated series with Jon Runyan for several weeks now, and is the Packers’ likely starter at right guard next season.

Doubs earned a starting job from Day 1 and had a breakout game against Dallas in the NFC wild card round, when he caught six passes for 151 yards. And Tom has been the Packers’ best offensive lineman this year and looks like a future Pro Bowler.

In addition, Gutekunst found valuable reserve outside linebacker Kingsley Enagbare in the fifth round, and tackle Rasheed Walker in the seventh round. After playing in just one game as a rookie, Rasheed Walker has filled in admirably at left tackle since David Bakhtiari went down after Week 1.

Add it up and Gutekunst could have found as many as seven starters in that 2022 draft.

“That’s not too shabby,” safety Darnell Savage said. “We’ll take that.”

Amazingly, Gutekunst might have fared even better with his 2023 draft class. During the Packers’ win at Dallas last week, five of Gutekunst’s 13 picks started and 11 made major contributions.

First round outside linebacker Lukas Van Ness has played just 32.9% of the snaps this season, but has flashed and could be an impact player as soon as next year. Second round tight end Luke Musgrave missed six weeks with a lacerated kidney, but still ranked sixth on the team in receptions (34) and yards (352).

Second round wideout Jayden Reed led the Packers in receptions (64), receiving yards (793) and tied for first in receiving touchdowns (seven). Third round tight end Tucker Kraft (31-355-2) blossomed late and could be a future star.

Fifth round wideout Dontayvion Wicks (39-581-4) might wind up being the best of all these gifted pass catchers, while sixth round defensive end Karl Brooks surprised with four sacks. Seventh round cornerback Carrington Valentine started 13 games due to injury and trades and has more than held his own.

In addition, fourth round defensive end Colby Wooden and seventh round safety Anthony Johnson have shown promise in limited snaps. Sixth round kicker Anders Carlson has displayed potential during an up and down season, and fifth round quarterback Sean Clifford was the No. 2 signal caller all season.

“Yeah, we’ve got a lot of help from this (draft) class,” defensive end Kenny Clark said of the 2023 draftees. “You never know how it’s going to go with young guys, but they’ve all done a great job.

“I don’t know if it’s our best group of rookies since I’ve been here. That’s for you guys to decide. I just know they’ve given us a ton of help.”

Since the Super Bowl era began in 1966, the Packers have won four titles. And with each championship came a memorable draft class or two.

Vainisi found Starr and Forrest Gregg in his historic 1956 draft, then landed Jim Taylor, Jerry Kramer, Dan Currie and Nitschke in 1958.

“I loved Jack Vainisi — all the players did,” Hornung told me in a 2011 interview. “He even got along with Lombardi. He was a football man — that’s what he was. Pure and simple. He brought so much talent to Green Bay.”

Wolf had a handful of impressive draft classes himself. His finest might have come in 1995, though, when he selected cornerback Craig Newsome, wideout Antonio Freeman, guard Adam Timmerman, linebacker Brian Williams and fullback William Henderson.

All five of those players were starters a year later when the Packers won Super Bowl XXXI.

And Ted Thompson’s 2005 draft class (Aaron Rodgers and Nick Collins) and his 2009 class (B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews and T.J. Lang) were integral in Green Bay winning Super Bowl XLV.

These current Packers have a ways to go before Gutekunst is mentioned among men like Vainisi and Wolf. But the last two draft classes have Green Bay — and Gutekunst — set up for great things in the years ahead.

“This is just the start for them,” the AFC executive said. “They’re so young that barring injury, they’re only going to get better. What Brian (Gutekunst) has done is pretty amazing.”

And what Packer Nation is viewing right now might only be the beginning.

Aaron Jones seems to have eliminated all doubt that he’ll be back next season. He’s coming off the best 5-game stretch of his entire career. The Packers adore his veteran leader qualities. But with A.J. Dillon hitting free agency, I wouldn’t be shocked if Green Bay draft the long-term replacement at RB this offseason. This has 3rd or 4th round pick written all over it. 

Find Love’s cornerstone left tackle, but this can wait

Zach Tom is a cornerstone tackle for the future. He enjoyed an excellent sophomore season. Rasheed Walker’s future may not be as transparent, but between him and a returning David Bakhtiari (yes the Packers seriously believe he’s coming back) it might be enough to delay drafting a top offensive tackle for another year. 

The consensus for young star QBs is to draft their franchise left tackle early, but the Packers are supremely confident at finding quality linemen in the later rounds. That route wouldn’t shock me either. 

You need some DBs, like 3 DBs

Priority number 1 (one) (uno) starred*, underlined, highlighted, in all capital letters. Find. Some. Defensive. Backs. 

This can partially be done in free agency. Quality safeties like Xavier McKinney, Kyle Dugger, Kamren Curl, Geno Stone, DeShon Elliott and dare I say Antoine Winfield Jr. are just a sample of expiring contracts. Expect some of them to be available at pretty affordable prices too. 

Cornerback is also a pretty big priority. The health (and quality) of Eric Stokes is pretty uncertain. Jaire Alexander is elite but has been undeniably injury prone and Carrington Valentine was a great find but he’s realistically a CB4 if you actually plan on contending. 

The secondary likely remains Green Bay’s biggest weakness on paper next season. There’s only so much you can do in one season, but plenty of teams have won a Super Bowl with a relatively weak secondary, especially when your offense looks as high octane as this one. 

You need to stay healthy

This one is out of Green Bay’s control. They were ravaged by injuries all season long but finally got healthy towards the tail end of the year. Losing an All-Pro left tackle who occupies 16% of your cap is never a recipe for success. 

What concerns me is that the Packers now have their fair share of players with significant injury history. You’d be asking an awful lot from the football gods for Bakhtiari, Alexander, Christian Watson, Aaron Jones and Eric Stokes to all remain healthy next season. It’s unfortunate, but that’s life. Next man up. Speaking of which. 

The Packers have the depth for a Super Bowl run

Bolstered by an outstanding rookie class, Green Bay has depth all over the field for years to come. Karl Brooks and Colby Wooden are quality rotational defensive  linemen for years to come. Carrington Valentine will always be ready to play. They are about 8 guys deep with quality pass catchers, and it feels like Green Bay will always have capable backup offensive linemen. 

Finally, erm, I don’t know what to do at kicker. I’m not a kicking coach. I’m not an expert. Anders Carlson could be elite next year. He could also be awful. It’s a ridiculously tough position to predict. Go with your gut, Gutey. 

Guiding future climbs will be LaFleur, who proved his clout as a playcaller and designer of offense in the first year post-Aaron Rodgers. Once LaFleur and Love got in lock step, the Packers offense was as good or better as all but a few offenses. The two could be the premier coach-quarterback combo for years to come. LaFleur needs to make a big decision at defensive coordinator, where the Packers probably need a change to maximize what’s been built talent-wise on the defensive side. But having LaFleur as the coach and playcaller should ensure Love and the offense has every opportunity to emerge as a juggernaut as soon as next season.

And more help is on the way.

The last two draft classes from Brian Gutekunst powered the late-season surge, and the Packers general manager will go into this offseason with the draft capital necessary for filling in long-term holes and providing more firepower on both sides of the ball for 2024. As a talent evaluator, Gutekunst deserves his flowers. At this point, I’m not sure many teams would pass on swapping rosters with the Packers. And five picks in the top 100 in April could help turn this into a special group.

This all feels so familiar. The Packers, with what looks like another great quarterback in place, have everything in front of them. This opening chapter was the ultimate rollercoaster ride, but it also set the stage for what could be another book of dominance for the Packers. It just wouldn’t be the playoffs in Green Bay without a heartbreak mixed with the promise of the future. So many times, whether it was with Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers as the quarterback, the disappointment of a missed playoff opportunity or failed postseason run was buffeted by the promise of what’s next and the potential laced into the next opportunity.

For Jordan Love’s Packers, the playoff heartbreak arrived earlier than expected. A “rebuilding” year turned into a postseason run. In so many ways, Love’s Packers were able to fit all the lessons and triumphs of Rodgers’ 2008 and 2009 seasons into just one year. And everyone in Green Bay knows what happened in 2010.

Having a great quarterback and football team means consistently going to the postseason, and consistently going to the postseason means — for franchises not based in New England — a steady stream of heartbreaking losses. Only one team is happy at the end of it all. And the gauntlet of the elimination style postseason all but guarantees the worst and most painful ends to long, often magical seasons.

Favre and Rodgers both eventually broke through. The trajectory of Love’s Packers suggests this franchise will get many more chances to do so again.

Once again, the Packers found a new and unique way to create the intersection of disappointment in the present and excitement of the future. Once again, it is time to mourn the loss of a golden opportunity to do something historic and celebrate what could be the start of another splendid run in Green Bay.