Schedule Breakdown: What will the Packers’ 2023 record be?

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By Rex.sheild

Schedule Breakdown: What will the Packers’ 2023 record be?

If you ever need proof that NFL is king, look no further than the hype surrounding the annual schedule release broadcasted live on NFL Network Thursday night. What came about from said schedule release for the Green Bay Packers? Well, nothing new because Matt Schneidman of The Athletic leaked the team’s entire schedule Thursday morning. That saved me a lot of time, so I extend my gratitude to him. At any rate, the Green Bay Packers will open up the 2023 regular season, head coach Matt LaFleur’s fifth year at the helm and Jordan Love’s first year as QB1, against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field at 3:25 pm CST on FOX. Will Love begin the process of owning the Bears just like his predecessor owned them for almost two decades? The Packers will also close the regular season against the Bears. 

No Aaron Rodgers, no problem in the eyes of the television networks as Green Bay will play five prime-time games – two at home and three on the road – throughout the 2023 season (pending any late-season flexes): Week 4 (09/28) at home against the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football; Week 5 (10/09) on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football; Week 13 (12/03) at home against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football; Week 14 (12/11) on the road against the New York Giants; and Week 17 (12/31) on the road against the Minnesota Vikings. 

The Packers will also play on Thanksgiving Day against the Lions, coming off a game against the Los Angeles Chargers, for the first time since the 2013 season. (Of note, the Packers play both games this season against Detroit on short weeks.) That season, the Packers got smoked like a turkey, 40-10. The last time the Packers played on Thanksgiving Day (2015) resulted in a deflating 17-13 loss to the Bears, the night that the franchise retired Brett Favre’s number. 

As Schneidman pointed out, Green Bay will not play a 2022-23 playoff team until Week 8, when they host the Vikings. The Packers’ bye week is Week 6. Among the squad’s first six games, only two are at home. 

Arguably Green Bay’s toughest stretch is from Week 7 until Week 14 as they play four teams that made the playoffs last year. I also expect the Broncos (Week 7), Rams (Week 9), and Steelers (Week 10) to be better in 2023 than they were in 2022. 

Additional Nuggets

The Packers have the ninth-easiest strength of schedule based on their opponents’ 2022 win percentage (.476), and the easiest in the NFC North, according to NFL Research (h/t Andrew Siciliano).

Green Bay will travel 11,956 miles throughout the 2023 season, the second-least amount in the NFL, according to Bill Speros (h/t Adam Schefter). 

The Packers will play every team in the NFC South in 2023, just like they did in 2020. That season, they went 3-1, with the lone loss being to Tom Brady & Co. in Week 6.

  1. While Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder saw action in only four games a season ago (73/115, 708 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs), 2023 will be his first full year as a starter. Expect the Falcons, who will host the Packers in Week 2 (12 pm CST, FOX) to lean heavily on the run throughout the upcoming season, though, especially against the Packers, with the duo of second-year back Tyler Allgeier and rookie Bijan Robinson.
  2. The Panthers, who will host Green Bay in Week 16 on Christmas Eve (12 pm CST, FOX), drafted QB Bryce Young with the first overall pick. The Alabama product will reportedly start training camp as QB2, but do not be surprised if he is under center when the two teams face off against each other. Speaking of Carolina’s offense, new head coach Frank Reich & Co. totally revamped that side of the ball as they traded away WR DJ Moore and signed WR DJ Chark, WR Adam Thielen, and RB Miles Sanders.
  3. QB Derek Carr and his team, the New Orleans Saints, will travel to Lambeau Field in Week 3 for the first time since Week 7 of the 2017 season. In the 26-17 loss that season, Aaron Jones carried the ball 17 times for 131 yards and one touchdown while quarterback Brett Hundley registered a 39.9 passer rating (12-of-25 for 87 yards and one interception). 
  4. When the Tampa Bay and Green Bay meet in Week 15 at Lambeau Field, who will be the Bucs’ starting quarterback, Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask? In two career games against Green Bay, Mayfield has completed 33 of 57 total passes (57.9%) for 333 yards, three touchdowns, and five interceptions, with a passer rating of 55.7. 

The Packers will also play every team in the AFC West in 2023. The team did the same in 2019, going 3-1.

  1. The Packers will travel to play the Raiders and Davante Adams in Week 9 on Monday Night Football. Get your popcorn ready for the Jaire Alexander-Adams matchup. It is only the third time this century, and the first time in Las Vegas, Green Bay has played at the Raiders’ home stadium. The Packers are 2-0 in those games, including an emphatic 41-7 victory on December 22, 2003, one day after Brett Favre’s dad passed away. The Raiders, who finished 6-11 last season, are ushering in a new era at quarterback, with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. The team also signed WR Jakobi Myers in free agency.
  2. The Denver Broncos, the Packers’ Week 7 opponent, spent over $235 million in free agency, the most in the NFL. Head coach Sean Payton is the new sheriff in town after the team fired Nathaniel Hackett. Green Bay’s trip to Denver will be its first since the 2015 season. 
  3. The Packers will play host to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 13 for only the third time in the last 20 years and the first time since 2015, a game in which the Packers won, 38-28. QB1 Jordan Love’s first-ever regular season start came against the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium during the 2021 regular season, a 13-7 loss that prompted several people among the fan base to say that Love sucked and was an awful draft pick. 
  4. The Chargers will travel to the Frozen Tundra in Week 11 for the first time since the 2015 season. The Chargers added another big-bodied weapon on the outside for QB Justin Herbert, drafting WR Quentin Johnston in the first round. That’s all fine and dandy, but that won’t help them stop the run. The team ranked 27th and 30th in 2022 and 2021, respectively, in terms of opponent rushing yards per game. 

Green Bay will travel to Pittsburgh for the first time since 2017 to face off against the Steelers in Week 10. 

LaFleur will greet his old boss, Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams, in Week 9 at Lambeau Field. It will be the fourth matchup between the two teams in the last three seasons (2020-21 Divisional Round, 2021 Week 12, and 2022 Week 15). The three prior matchups resulted in a victory for the good guys.

All four major sportsbooks have the team’s over/under win total at 7.5. Give me the over for a 10-7 record. What do you think the Packers’ record will be in 2023? 

Rex is a lifelong Packers fan but was sick of the cold, so he moved to the heart of Cowboys country. Follow him on Twitter (@Sheild92) and Instagram (@rex.sheild). 

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